Has the triple fund rushed to buy the infrastructure project gem?
For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!
Three times the funds to buy infrastructure projects!
Has GEM peaked?
Source: Securities Market Red Weekly Original Red Weekly The market style has reversed, the technology collectively broke through the VS cycle with a big increase of 2 months, and the stocks have exceeded expectations to the extreme.
Breakthrough, technology stocks failed to perform a major reversal again, the GEM fell by nearly 5北京夜网%, the early popular stocks fell in batches, Guonong Technology (protection of rights), Hite Hi-tech and even from yesterday’s daily limit to the closing limit.
At the same time, cyclical stocks have risen strongly, building decoration, real estate, cement, steel, etc. have increased sharply, and the construction stocks, Shandong Road and Bridge, Hefei Urban Construction and other daily limit.
Some investors said that the recent market rhythm is too difficult to grasp, which can be seen from the rumors circulating in the market today.
A fund manager said yesterday: “As long as you want to get out of the car (tech stocks) and pee, you will be ruthlessly thrown off by the wheels of history because this is a high-speed train.
“So, I urinated on my pants today before I got off the car. It started to be warm, but now 天津夜网 it’s cold.
Data Talk: Has GEM Peaked?
How much room for growth?
1. Combining the historical turnover rate of GEM, Tianfeng Securities refers to the direction of the indicators: the current structure of the liquidity and capital cities is limited, and the short-term interpretation of estimates and fundamentals are limited. Some indicators of transaction size and liquidityWorthy of attention.
Regarding the GEM turnover rate (circulated market value), the GEM turnover rate has exceeded 5% four times in history: Today, the GEM turnover rate has hovered around 5% for 7 trading days, and the GEM index has the largest increase of 7.
Therefore, from the historical extreme performance analysis of the turnover rate, the turnover rate of this GEM round is maintained at about 5%. In theory, it may be able to last 5 to 26 trading days, and there may be about 12% to 32% of growth space.
(Of course, it is necessary to comprehensively compare the test volume plus leverage and the increase in the previous stage of the interval.) 2. From the perspective of the overall forecast, the GEM market surplus today is reduced by 58 times, and the market net replacement is 6.
The relative level of price-earnings ratio is currently at the level before the start of the bull market in December 2014 and the potential replacement market in May 2016; it is estimated that the percentile is about 65% of the 5-year historical percentile.
Therefore, the current ChiNext estimate is normally high (there is absolutely no underestimation, and it has not reached the point of bubble irrational prosperity).
3. The GEM variable is the rise and fall of U.S. stocks. Since 2019, the trend of U.S. stocks has a positive correlation with the trend of the GEM.
For example, in the first half of 2019, both the Nasdaq index and the GEM index showed an upward trend; in the second half of 2019, both of them were in an internal shock state within the range; since the fourth quarter of 2019, both growth trends have been started.
Therefore, considering the external environment, the trend of the GEM will be affected by U.S. stocks. If the U.S. market continues to decline due to factors such as epidemics, the A-share market will inevitably be dragged down; if U.S. stocks can stop short-term decline and continue the growth trend, the GEM is endogenousIt is more motivated and has the ability to set new heights.
Stick to 5G new infrastructure, or dip in traditional real estate infrastructure?
1. The 5G new infrastructure is the core representative of the current round of technology stock market as the first choice GEM for offense.
It can be seen from the above section that the GEM is estimated to have not reached a high level, and some segments of the electronics, computer, and communications industries are still in the uplink stage of the boom cycle, and continue to be active after short-term adjustments.
Tianfeng Securities pointed out that the most lenient time may gradually pass, and the index may be replaced by a sharp upward trend, but the individual stocks and themes in the technology sector may continue to be active.
Haitong Securities pointed out that in the future, we are expected to usher in a new round of technology cycles represented by 5G, and the technology cycle is being driven by hardware to promote software innovation and content development, that is, from 19 years to 20 years in the computer, media, and new energy vehicle industries.chain.
China Merchants Securities pointed out that at present, A-share technology stocks have many similarities with American technology stocks in the 1990s: the arrival of the 5G technology cycle, gradually leading the new round of technology cycles, and the support of a large number of industrial policies during the economic transition period.All make the future prospects of A-share trillion-scale technology stocks look promising, and the layout of technology leaders is always on the horizon.
In the specific direction, 5G construction speeds up, network construction will boost market demand for main equipment, optical devices, PCBs, etc. At the same time, the volume of 5G mobile phones will boost market demand for chips, optical lenses, radio frequency, mobile phone cooling, and OLED.
2. As the first choice of defense and counterattack, Guotai Junan explicitly stated last weekend that the day of resumption of work is the time when the cycle starts!
Guotai Junan proposed that the hypothetical impact of the epidemic on the company’s zero growth rate in February 2020 be divided into five subdivisions. In order to hedge the negative contribution of consumption, it is estimated that the fixed asset investment growth rate in 2020 needs to be at least 5.
It is assumed that the growth rate of manufacturing investment will remain at 3 in 2020.
The 1% growth rate is unchanged, and the real estate investment growth rate is 7%. It will take ten years for the infrastructure investment growth rate to reach 7.
Obviously funds have taken the lead to realize this expectation. Since February, the volume of infrastructure engineering (165525) index funds has significantly increased. Today ‘s turnover is a historical amount and is equivalent to three times the previous trading day.From the high level to the low-level infrastructure, actively seek value depressions.
In addition, the marginal improvement trend of real estate policies is gradually clear. At present, over 20 provinces and cities have successively introduced policies related to the real estate sector to bail out the real estate industry.
Among them, Zhumadian City, Henan Province took the lead in reducing the down payment ratio for first homes, lowered the minimum down payment ratio for employees’ first home loans from 30% to 20%, and raised the maximum loan amount for resettlement housing provident fund from 45 million to 500,000 yuan. Based on this, Yuan Hao (an analyst with Jin Qilin) (an analyst on the list of New Wealth) of Huachuang Securities believes that the current three major economic, financial, fiscal, and real estate policy relaxation signals are being strengthened, and the counter-cyclical reduction of policy flexibility may further increaseLarge, under the low estimate of the real estate sector will increase the upward elasticity of the estimate.
Huachuang Securities recommends a rating for the reorganization of the sector, and selects high-quality housing companies and high-quality property management companies. Recommendations: 1) Residential development: Vanke A, Poly Real Estate, Gemdale Group, Jinke, Xuhui Holdings, Sunshine City, Zhongnan Construction, RongSheng Development, Blu-ray Development, Hua Xia Happiness; 2) Property Management: Merchants Accumulation, Green City Service, Poly Property, Xin Tai Zheng
”Red Weekly” consolidated financial data, according to the following 5 conditions: 1. Dividend ratio (12 months) is greater than 3%; 2. The total market value is greater than 200 billion; 3. The quarterly 2019 net profit increase is greater than 20%; 4, 2019Annual report pre-growth at 30%; 5, P / E ratio is more than 15 times.
After screening, only 10 real estate companies were found to be eligible. Among them, Rongsheng Development and Greenland Holdings achieved a yield of about 5%. Rongsheng Development, Greenland Holdings, Blu-ray Development and Poly Real Estate have disclosed the 2019 annual report notice or express report.