Liquidity is now tightening. How will the bond market go?
At the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held on April 19 by reporter Hu Yang and editor Yao Xiangyun, the “six stable” goals of multiple quarters were gradually maintainedInvestment, stable expectations) disappeared, and re-emphasized the requirement of “adhering to structural deleveraging”.
This change in expression, as well as the stabilization of macroeconomic data in the first quarter, has sparked market speculation as to whether there will be fine-tuning of monetary policy.
However, according to the reporter of “Daily Economic News”, since April this year, the money market interest rate center has risen as a whole.
Public data show that on April 17, the overnight SHIBOR reported 2.
998%, up 11.
5 basis points, a new high since April 2015.
As for DR007, it was reported on April 19.
6859%, which is an increase of 18 from April 1.
79 basis points.
Wen Bin, chief analyst at China Minsheng Bank, told a reporter from the Daily Economic News that the short-term market interest rate has risen significantly in the past four months, which has increased the short-term reverse repurchase rate and stabilized the short-term market interest rate.
In the next stage, the probability of the RRR cut will further decrease in the short term. He believes that “in the future, it may be more open market operations to maintain the overall stability of liquidity.
Regarding the direction of monetary policy, some analysts, who asked not to be named, believe that the level of prudence of decision-makers is gradually underestimated.
“The macro data for March is quite specific. Affected by factors such as corporate tax payments, monetary policy should be more of a wait-and-see.
The overall improvement and rise of the interest rate center in April Generally speaking, this Politburo meeting is more optimistic about the current economic situation, and aims to “proactive fiscal policy should be strengthened and effective, and a stable monetary policy should be moderately tight.”
At least yes, most of the quarterly Politburo meetings have retained the “six stable” goals (stabilizing employment, financial stability, foreign trade, foreign investment, investment, and expectations).
But this time, this expression disappeared, and the requirement of “adhering to structural deleveraging” was re-mentioned.
Therefore, the Guohai Securities Research Report believes that this sends a very clear signal that monetary policy is ending easing, returning to stability, and focusing on preventing long-term financial risks.
At present, the signal is more severe than the judgment that terrorism will not be “relaxed” and may impact market sentiment in the short term.
In fact, the previous interest rate on the money market has risen, which has reflected a slight adjustment in monetary policy.
”Daily Economic News” reporters combed and found that since April this year, the interest rate indicators, including overnight SHIBOR and DR007, have been included as a whole.
Specifically, on April 22, the overnight SHIBOR report was 2.
557%, which has risen by about 24 on April 1.
2 basis points.
In addition, since April, the overnight SHIBOR has also risen by an average of 1.
729 basis points.
More importantly, on April 17, the day when the 160 billion reverse repo operation and the 200 billion MLF operation were carried out at the same time, the overnight SHIBOR increased by 11.
5 basis points, reported 2.
998%, a new high since April 2015.
As for DR007, the latest data shows that DR007 reported 2 on April 19.
6859%, which is an increase of 18 from April 1.
79 basis points.
Since April, 厦门夜网 the number of days of DR007 going up has reached 8 days, and the number of days going down has been 5 days.
Wen Bin told the “Daily Economic News” reporter that in the past four months, because the short-term market interest rate has increased significantly, it has increased the short-term reverse repurchase issue, thereby stabilizing the short-term market interest rate.
The keynote of monetary policy in the future is the soundness of April’s liquidity. Wen Bin believes that it is generally stable.
However, under the background of favorable macro data, the market may have different views on the macro-splitting in the next stage, especially the direction of monetary policy.
“From the tone, I think it’s still ‘robust’.
Although the internal data performance of the first quarter, including the economy and finance, exceeded expectations, it should be noted that the Chinese economy is still facing a lot of internal and external pressures.”In a stable situation, the use of some monetary policy tools may change from the previous market forecast criteria.
In the future, it may still be more through open market operations to maintain the overall stability of liquidity.
In the short term, the probability of reduction will further decrease, and the need to use MLF as a substitute at the long end will also decrease.
Some analysts, who asked not to be named, believe that the restructuring underestimates the level of prudence of decision-makers.
According to his explanation: “The macro data in March has certain particularities. Affected by factors such as corporate tax payments, monetary policy should focus more on watching its transformation.
“It is undeniable that, from the current point of view, the overall market interest rate center rose in April.
In this context, what will happen to the price of the bond market?
Shen Wanhongyuan pointed out that at present, there is no trend change in monetary policy, but appropriate fine-tuning is based on the supply and demand of market funds to maintain a reasonable and adequate liquidity direction.
At the same time, the average target set for this year is to reduce the financing cost of the entity. After the funds have reached the current position, the next step is to reduce the cost of general loans and non-standard financing. In this context, it is difficult to tighten monetary policy.
It is expected that the center of budget funds in the future will remain low and volatile, which will have a neutral impact on the bond market.
According to the stock market, Wen Bin believes that whether the stock market can continue its previous growth in the second quarter mainly depends on whether the corporate profitability can be further improved.
“If the positive economic momentum in the first quarter is consolidated in the second quarter and corporate profitability continues to improve, then the current 3200-point shock may change to normal, and the stock index will still have upward momentum.
Analysts who induced anonymity also believe that the trend of the stock market is certainly related to the abundance of capital, but more is supported by practical content.
He concluded: “The growth of the stock market this year is divided into two phases, from 2440 to 3000 points is to repair last year’s oversold market.
From 3000 to 3200, the most realistic motive is the increase in the performance of listed companies. The tax reduction indirectly brought an increase in the market value of US $ 4 trillion. If 3000 points is used as the fair price, then it is equivalent to 7%?
8% upside can correspond to the current 3200 points.